Week 5Half-PPR · Rest of SeasonUpdated October 7, 2026

This is the Week 5 edition · latest is Week 6

Week 5 · Half-PPR · Top 150

Week 5 Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Rankings (2026)

Movement shown against the prior week. Tiers drawn at value cliffs, not even buckets.

UpdatedWed Oct 7, 12:59 AM ET

Reviewed by Costa Angelakis

The Tiers

16.8

15.6

14.6

12.7

11.2

11.8

12.6

10.6

10.3

10.9

6.8

7.4

GOATs8

The9

can't9

on11

Potential6

starters11

breakouts..12

ambiguity10

Flex10

Safe13

Flex11

Floor8

Dart32

Width is tier size · height is average projected PPG · the drops between bars are the value cliffs

150 players · 13 tiers

#	Model	Player	Pos	Tm	PPG	Chg	OTS	Risk
GOATscliff: -4.6 PPG over replacement
1	1	Jahmyr GibbsBell cowPass-down role	RB	DET	21.1	—	−34	Low
2	10	Bijan RobinsonBell cowPass-down role	RB	ATL	17.5	—	−43	Low
3	15	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaAlpha target	WR	SEA	14.6	—	−50	Low
4	5	Ja'Marr ChaseAlpha target	WR	CIN	16.4	—	−13	Low
5	9	Kenneth Walker IIIBell cowPass-down role	RB	KC	17.7	▲ 2	−18	Medium
6	6	CeeDee LambAlpha target	WR	DAL	16.4	▲ 4	+49	Low
7	3	Jonathan TaylorBell cow	RB	IND	18.5	▼ 2	−16	Low
8	36	Amon-Ra St. BrownAlpha target	WR	DET	11.8	▼ 2	−44	Low
The best of the bestcliff: 0 PPG over replacement
9	4	Puka NacuaAlpha target	WR	LAR	16.5	▲ 5	0	High
10	13	James CookBell cowPass-down role	RB	BUF	17.4	▼ 2	−20	Low
11	7	Christian McCaffreyLead backPass-down role	RB	SF	18.3	▼ 2	+28	High
12	48	Brock BowersAlpha target	TE	LV	12.2	▼ 1	0	Low
13	32	Trey McBrideAlpha target	TE	ARI	13.4	▼ 1	−16	Low
14	16	Derrick HenryBell cow	RB	BAL	16.5	▼ 1	+12	Medium
15	23	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	21.2	—	0	Low
16	37	Chris OlaveAlpha target	WR	NO	11.7	—	+2	Medium
17	25	Justin JeffersonAlpha target	WR	MIN	13.1	—	0	Low
can't cut list!cliff: -1.1 PPG over replacement
18	26	Ashton JeantyBell cowPass-down role	RB	LV	15.0	—	−51	Low
19	27	Drake LondonAlpha target	WR	ATL	12.8	▲ 2	+46	Medium
20	22	Nico CollinsAlpha target	WR	HOU	13.4	▲ 6	0	Low
21	2	Kyren WilliamsBell cowPass-down role	RB	LAR	20.7	▲ 2	+40	Low
22	18	Chase BrownBell cowPass-down role	RB	CIN	16.3	▼ 3	−38	Low
23	17	Javonte WilliamsBell cow	RB	DAL	16.3	▲ 1	−2	Low
24	59	Jeremiyah LoveLead back	RB	ARI	12.2	▼ 2	+14	High
25	28	Garrett WilsonAlpha target	WR	NYJ	12.5	—	+5	Medium
26	61	Saquon BarkleyLead back	RB	PHI	12.2	▼ 6	−64	Medium
on the verge of uncuttablecliff: 0.1 PPG over replacement
27	43	Christian WatsonVolume WR2	WR	GB	11.3	▲ 2	−41	High
28	81	Parker WashingtonVolume WR2	WR	JAX	9.1	—	−64	Medium
29	54	Lamar JacksonDual threat	QB	BAL	18.5	▲ 2	0	Low
30	40	Tetairoa McMillanAlpha target	WR	CAR	11.5	▲ 11	+28	Low
31	39	Malik NabersAlpha target	WR	NYG	11.6	▲ 9	−4	High
32	20	Zay FlowersAlpha target	WR	BAL	13.6	—	0	Low
33	65	D'Andre SwiftLead back	RB	CHI	12.0	▼ 6	−36	Medium
34	47	Bucky IrvingLead backPass-down role	RB	TB	13.1	▲ 3	−10	Medium
35	34	DeVonta SmithAlpha target	WR	PHI	12.2	▼ 5	0	Low
36	11	Tee HigginsAlpha target	WR	CIN	15.5	▲ 2	+21	Medium
37	41	Davante AdamsVolume WR2	WR	LAR	11.4	▼ 2	−17	Medium
Potential stars, with questionscliff: -0.6 PPG over replacement
38	44	George PickensVolume WR2	WR	DAL	11.3	▼ 5	−32	Low
39	82	Breece HallLead back	RB	NYJ	11.1	▼ 3	0	Medium
40	88	A.J. BrownVolume WR2	WR	NE	8.9	▲ 2	0	Medium
41	60	Tyler WarrenAlpha target	TE	IND	11.4	▲ 3	+4	Low
42	21	Cam SkatteboBell cow	RB	NYG	15.4	▲ 3	+14	High
43	76	Jaylen WaddleVolume WR2	WR	DEN	9.2	▼ 4	+1	Medium
starters I am very content withcliff: 5.2 PPG over replacement
44	68	Matthew GoldenVolume WR2	WR	GB	9.8	▲ 2	−15	Medium
45	94	Emeka EgbukaVolume WR2	WR	TB	8.8	▲ 2	−8	High
46	113	Ladd McConkeyVolume WR2	WR	LAC	7.6	▲ 2	−44	Low
47	42	DJ MooreVolume WR2	WR	BUF	11.3	▲ 2	−22	Medium
48	95	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	16.6	▲ 2	0	Medium
49	93	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	16.7	▲ 2	0	Low
50	12	Michael WilsonAlpha target	WR	ARI	15.4	▲ 16	+52	Low
51	46	Mike EvansVolume WR2	WR	SF	11.1	▲ 1	+29	High
52	50	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	18.8	▲ 2	0	Low
53	62	Bhayshul TutenLead back	RB	JAX	12.1	▲ 3	+16	Medium
54	24	Chuba HubbardBell cow	RB	CAR	15.1	▲ 3	+32	Medium
breakouts.. (if everything goes right)cliff: -1.8 PPG over replacement
55	108	Jalen CokerVolume WR2	WR	CAR	7.9	▲ 3	0	Low
56	79	Omarion HamptonLead back	RB	LAC	11.2	▼ 22	−34	Low
57	14	Jaylen WarrenBell cowPass-down role	RB	PIT	16.9	▲ 8	+40	Low
58	35	Luther Burden IIIVolume WR2	WR	CHI	12.0	▲ 2	+8	Medium
59	127	TreVeyon HendersonCommittee	RB	NE	9.1	▲ 3	0	Medium
60	63	George KittleFeatured TE	TE	SF	11.3	▲ 4	+25	High
61	67	Tucker KraftFeatured TE	TE	GB	11.1	—	+26	High
62	70	Sam LaPortaFeatured TE	TE	DET	10.9	▲ 8	+8	High
63	38	Isaiah LikelyAlpha target	TE	NYG	12.8	▲ 4	+29	Low
64	45	Rashee RiceAlpha target	WR	KC	11.3	▼ 11	0	Medium
65	78	Jameson WilliamsVolume WR2	WR	DET	9.2	▼ 2	−17	Medium
66	56	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	18.3	▼ 11	0	Low
ambiguity and Upside.. what wins out?cliff: -0.9 PPG over replacement
67	31	Carnell TateAlpha target	WR	TEN	12.2	▲ 22	+52	Low
68	51	Josh DownsAlpha target	WR	IND	10.8	▲ 16	+1	Medium
69	117	David MontgomeryLead back	RB	HOU	9.4	▼ 10	−14	Low
70	30	Quinshon JudkinsBell cowPass-down role	RB	CLE	14.4	▲ 16	+26	High
71	87	Colston LovelandFeatured TE	TE	CHI	10.2	▼ 3	+56	Low
72	33	Drake Maye	QB	NE	20.1	▼ 3	0	Low
73	145	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	7.5	▼ 30	−52	Low
74	19	Aaron JonesBell cowPass-down role	RB	MIN	16.0	▼ 2	+55	High
75	99	Rome OdunzeVolume WR2	WR	CHI	8.4	—	+32	Low
76	74	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17.2	▲ 1	0	Low
Flex with Benefits?cliff: 3.9 PPG over replacement
77	58	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	18.1	▲ 1	0	Low
78	132	Juwan JohnsonFeatured TE	TE	NO	8.0	▲ 21	+16	Low
79	52	Romeo DoubsVolume WR2	WR	NE	10.8	▲ 3	+34	Low
80	29	Jordan AddisonAlpha target	WR	MIN	12.4	▲ 3	+32	Low
81	120	Travis KelceFeatured TE	TE	KC	8.6	▼ 2	−28	Low
82	131	Kyle MonangaiCommittee	RB	CHI	8.9	▲ 10	+37	High
83	85	Stefon DiggsVolume WR2	WR	WAS	9.0	▼ 2	−9	Medium
84	98	Terry McLaurinVolume WR2	WR	WAS	8.4	▼ 4	0	Low
85	77	DK MetcalfVolume WR2	WR	PIT	9.2	—	−17	Low
86	55	Ollie Gordon IILead backPass-down role	RB	MIA	12.6	▲ 4	0
Safe starters - Capped ceilingcliff: 3 PPG over replacement
87	134	Tyler Shough	QB	NO	14.6	▲ 1	0	Low
88	111	Harold Fannin Jr.Featured TE	TE	CLE	9.0	▲ 20	+13	Low
89	125	Denzel BostonVolume WR2	WR	CLE	7.1	▲ 35	0
90	100	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	8.4	▼ 17	−15	High
91	71	Tony PollardBell cow	RB	TEN	11.5	▲ 20	+44	Medium
92	174	Blake CorumCommittee	RB	LAR	6.7	▼ 16	−32	Low
93	110	Xavier WorthyVolume WR2	WR	KC	7.8	▲ 12	−2	Low
94	122	Woody MarksCommitteePass-down role	RB	HOU	9.3	▲ 13	−3	Low
95	106	Rhamondre StevensonCommittee	RB	NE	9.9	▼ 8	−37	Low
96	102	Jacory Croskey-MerrittLead back	RB	WAS	10.2	▼ 5	−4	Medium
97	229	Kaelon BlackCommittee	RB	SF	4.0	▼ 1	−42	Low
98	73	Jared Goff	QB	DET	17.2	▼ 3	0	Low
99	64	Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	17.9	▼ 6	0	Low
Flex Fill in with Questionscliff: 3.9 PPG over replacement
100	126	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	15.0	▲ 20	0
101	215	Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	2.4	NEW	−1
102	89	Chris Godwin Jr.Volume WR2	WR	TB	8.9	▼ 5	+33	Medium
103	96	Quentin JohnstonVolume WR2	WR	LAC	8.6	▼ 9	−38	Low
104	92	J.K. DobbinsLead back	RB	DEN	10.8	▼ 4	+19	High
105	49	RJ HarveyCommitteePass-down role	RB	DEN	12.9	▼ 2	0	Low
106	66	Bo Nix	QB	DEN	17.9	▼ 8	0	Low
107	57	Jordan Love	QB	GB	18.2	▼ 3	0	Low
108	105	Michael PittmanVolume WR2	WR	PIT	8.1	▼ 6	0	Low
109	103	Courtland SuttonVolume WR2	WR	DEN	8.1	▼ 8	0	Medium
110	83	Jakobi MeyersVolume WR2	WR	JAX	9.0	▼ 4	+41	Low
Floor and Ceiling Opposites - pick your poisoncliff: -8.9 PPG over replacement
111	161	Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	5.2	▼ 1	0	Low
112	91	Kyle PittsFeatured TE	TE	ATL	10.0	—	+24	Low
113	207	Emmett JohnsonCommittee	RB	KC	5.0	▲ 8	−34	Low
114	182	Rico DowdleCommittee	RB	PIT	6.3	▼ 1	0	Low
115	159	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	5.3	—	+14	Low
116	163	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	5.2	—	−37	Medium
117	72	Khalil ShakirVolume WR2	WR	BUF	9.5	—	+5	Low
118	130	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	8.2	—	+6	Low
Dart Throws
119	8	Emanuel WilsonLead back	RB	SEA	17.8	▲ 30	+100
120	140	Keaton MitchellCommitteePass-down role	RB	LAC	8.4	▲ 17	+58
121	200	Brian RobinsonCommittee	RB	ATL	5.4	▲ 25	+21
122	201	Tyler AllgeierCommittee	RB	ARI	5.3	▲ 19	−37
123	168	Braelon AllenCommittee	RB	NYJ	6.9	▼ 4	+93
124	121	Alvin KamaraCommitteePass-down role	RB	NO	9.3	▲ 4	0
125	53	Kyler MurrayDual threat	QB	MIN	18.6	▼ 11	0	Low
126	75	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	17.2	▼ 17	0	Low
127	123	Kenyon SadiqFeatured TE	TE	NYJ	8.4	▼ 4	+47
128	167	Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	5.0	▲ 2	0	Low
129	116	Makai Lemon	WR	PHI	7.4	▼ 4	+26	Medium
130	80	KC ConcepcionVolume WR2	WR	CLE	9.2	▼ 4	+13	Medium
131	213	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	4.0	▼ 9	−49	Low
132	142	Keenan Allen	WR	IND	6.4	▼ 3	0	Low
133	135	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	PHI	6.7	▼ 6	+7
134	189	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	4.0	NEW	−68
135	104	Antonio WilliamsVolume WR2	WR	WAS	8.1	NEW	+27
136	158	Darren Waller	TE	CAR	6.6	▼ 4	+32
137	69	Malik WashingtonAlpha target	WR	MIA	9.8	▼ 4	+5	Low
138	148	Chris Bell	WR	MIA	6.1	▼ 4	+39	Low
139	194	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	3.8	▼ 4	−7
140	173	Rachaad WhiteCommittee	RB	WAS	6.8	▼ 4	0	Low
141	115	MarShawn LloydCommittee	RB	GB	9.5	▼ 3	−4	High
142	198	Mike Washington Jr.Committee	RB	LV	5.5	▲ 2	+11
143	202	Kenny GainwellCommittee	RB	TB	5.3	▼ 4	−7	Low
144	119	Tre TuckerVolume WR2	WR	LV	7.4	▼ 13	−1	Low
145	86	T.J. HockensonFeatured TE	TE	MIN	10.2	NEW	+41	Low
146	227	Chris Rodriguez Jr.Committee	RB	JAX	4.0	▲ 1	+2
147	136	Rashid ShaheedVolume WR2	WR	SEA	6.7	NEW	−8	Low
148	292	Malachi Fields	WR	NYG	0.0	NEW	−17
149	238	Tre Harris	WR	LAC	1.5	NEW	−4
150	152	Kayshon Boutte	WR	HOU	5.6	▼ 2	+24	Low

Model = where the projection model had him before judgment · PPG = projected half-PPR points per game · badges are computed from the projected share, never typed · cliff = the drop in value over replacement from this tier's last player to the next tier's first · Trend = rank over the last six weeks · Chg =movement vs. prior week · OTS = Opportunity Trend Score · How we build these

On the Cusp

Ten more I'd have in the conversation, in no order.

Player	Pos	Tm	Risk
Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA
Jalen Nailor	WR	LV
Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA
Kaleb Johnson	RB	GB
Kendre Miller	RB	NO
Konata Mumpfield	WR	LAR
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	Low
Ted Hurst III	WR	TB
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	Low
Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU

IR Taxi Squad

Out for a while, so not ranked this week. The number is his rest-of-season rank if healthy, where he slots the week he's back; the note is why.

Player	Pos	Tm	ROS rank if healthy	Was	Risk
Josh Jacobs Commissioner's exempt list, no timetable (first court date Nov. 17). 38th is where he'd rank if he were playing; the Packers' room is Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson and Brooks by the week.	RB	GB	#38	—	High
Jordyn Tyson IR with a designation to return (hamstring); eligible now, but Schefter says Week 7 at the soonest and Moore is going slow. 46th if healthy.	WR	NO	#46	#120	High
Caleb Williams Grade 2 hamstring, a third straight game missed Sunday; no setbacks per Ben Johnson, and Bagent starts at Green Bay with Keenum the backup. 65th if healthy; back around Week 6.	QB	CHI	#65	#74	Low
Jayden Daniels Dislocated elbow, three games missed; aiming for a full practice this week and the likely starter Sunday after Mariota's MCL sprain. 65th if healthy, and that could be this week.	QB	WAS	#65	#65	Medium
Jadarian Price The Flag Plant: on IR with a chest injury, four games minimum, Week 8 at the earliest, after 28 carries, two lost fumbles and a benching. Emanuel Wilson has the job. 70th if healthy is lower than August because the job isn't waiting for him; the grade is still the end of the year.	RB	SEA	#70	#71	Low
Jordan Mason Thumb fracture, on IR; eligible back in mid-October. Jones has had 65% to 82% of the carries without him. 74th if healthy.	RB	MIN	#74	#77	Low
Alec Pierce Heel, on IR; seen Sunday with a cast and a scooter, so the 'no procedure' report is in doubt. Week 7 at the earliest, likely longer. 75th if healthy.	WR	IND	#75	#75	Medium
Travis Etienne Hamstring, on IR, earliest Nov. 8 (Week 9). Kamara and Miller split it; Kamara had 7 carries, 7 targets and two scores Monday. 76th if healthy.	RB	NO	#76	#76	Low
De'Zhaun Stribling Ankle surgery, out close to ten weeks. 80th if healthy is the player; the roster spot is your league's call.	WR	SF	#80	#144
Dallas Goedert MCL sprain, a third game missed Sunday; the Eagles threw for 93 yards without him, Smith and Brown. 88th if healthy.	TE	PHI	#88	#91	Low
Jonah Coleman High-ankle sprain, on IR, Week 7 at the earliest (Oct. 25); Harvey took 10 targets and 7 carries behind Dobbins. 121st if healthy.	RB	DEN	#121	#121
Zach Charbonnet The 21-day practice window opened last Thursday, his first on-field work since the January ACL; Macdonald says team reps this week, so a return is close but not Sunday. With Price on IR he comes back into a real role behind Emanuel Wilson. 131st if healthy, and that number moves the week he's activated.	RB	SEA	#131	#150	High
Jonathan Brooks Core-muscle surgery, on IR, November at the earliest. Hubbard has 71% of the carries. 138th if healthy.	RB	CAR	#138	#138	Medium
Baker Mayfield Dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand; two more weeks of Daniels, Oct. 25 at the earliest. 160th if healthy, outside the publish line.	QB	TB	#160	#149
Tank Bigsby Core-muscle surgery and IR, earliest Nov. 8; he'd left with 14 carries for 55 as Barkley's fill-in. Shipley is the only healthy back on the active roster. 160th if healthy.	RB	PHI	#160	#145

The Flags

Risk is a judgment call, not a model output: Low, Medium or High. Every flag comes with the reason.

Kenneth Walker III Medium

22 for 177 and two scores, 85% of the carries; Emmett Johnson had none. Bye week, then the same offense built around him. Up two.

Puka Nacua High

Back from the hip: 12 targets, 9 for 125 and a rushing score in a 51-attempt game. High risk stays for the hip and nothing else. Up five.

Christian McCaffrey High

15 for 52 and a score, 5 targets; 43% of the carries (33% → 37% → 65% → 43%) and 17% of the targets, trending down. Black had 6 carries, Purdy 10. High risk is the history; the role is a 60% back, not a 75% one.

#11

Derrick Henry Medium

23 for 73 and a score, 77% of the carries, a fourth straight week above 65%. If Lamar sits Sunday night the Ravens lean on him more, not less. Medium risk is the age, not the role.

#14

Chris Olave Medium

12 targets, 8 for 116; 25% → 31% → 32% → 26% of an offense that throws 48 times because it trails. The model's 37 reads the Saints; I read the share. Medium risk is the turnovers around him.

#16

Drake London Medium

6 targets, 5 for 96, 30%, in a game Penix threw 20 times because Atlanta led 45-24. 21% → 16% → 43% → 30%. Up two; medium risk is the game script on a team that runs when it leads.

#19

Jeremiyah Love High

14 carries (54%) to Allgeier's 8, an ankle LaFleur calls new and unrelated to the high ankle, and Allgeier took the last four snaps. One game after 21 of 27. Down two as a hedge; high risk until Friday's report.

#24

Garrett Wilson Medium

4 targets, 3 for 27, in a game the Jets threw 15 times (fifteen). 27% of nothing; the share is fine, the game plan wasn't. Holding. Medium risk is a 15-attempt offense.

#25

Saquon Barkley Medium

Hamstring in the opening minutes, 2 carries, didn't return; then Bigsby left for core-muscle surgery and IR, so Shipley is the only healthy back on the active roster. Sirianni gave no update Monday. Down six; 20–26 when he's back.

#26

Christian Watson High

3 targets, 3 for 47; 38% → 20% → 10% of the throws, with Golden and Kraft at 7 each. Up two anyway because the receivers around him fell further. High risk is the share this week, not the knee.

#27

Parker Washington Medium

3 targets, 1 for 7; 43% → 19% → 13%. Strange had 8 and Lawrence threw 23 times. The model has gone from loving him to 81st. Holding at 28 is the benefit of the doubt, and this is the last week of it.

#28

Malik Nabers High

7 targets, 6 for 112 and a score; 31% → 12% → 29% → 24%. Up nine. High risk is still the quarterback, but Winston threw 29 times for 250 and three scores.

#31

D'Andre Swift Medium

15 carries (28%) to Monangai's 30. 46% → 52% → 57% → 28%. Ben Johnson rode the hot hand for 146 yards, and the imaging on Monangai's thumb showed nothing. Down six, and more if Sunday looks the same.

#33

Bucky Irving Medium

16 for 61, 52% of the carries, and no targets (12% → 11% → 0%) with Daniels at quarterback. Up three on a run-first month; losing the passing downs is the cap.

#34

Tee Higgins Medium

16 targets, 11 for 157 with Chase out after the second quarter. Adductor, day to day, update Wednesday. The model has him 11th. Up two; if Chase misses Miami, Higgins is a top-15 play this week.

#36

Davante Adams Medium

9 targets, 4 for 32 with Nacua back; 33% → 27% → 18%. The two weeks as the whole passing game are over. Down two.

#37

Breece Hall Medium

Out again with the quad; Braelon Allen took all 14 Jets carries. Second game missed, no return date given. Down three; 33–39 when he's back.

#39

A.J. Brown Medium

On IR since Sept. 12 with the high-ankle sprain; not eligible to practice until Week 6, back around Week 8. He moves to the taxi squad next week; 40 is where he'd be when he's back, not now.

#40

Cam Skattebo High

18 for 58 and 1 catch, 64% of the carries (49% → 57% → 61% → 64%); Najee 9. The Giants run with Winston. The model has him 21st; high risk is 3.2 a carry in a 36-point game. Up three.

#42

Jaylen Waddle Medium

6 targets, 5 for 35 and a score, 16%; 11% → 34% → 23% → 16%. Nix threw 42 times and Harvey caught 10 of them. Down four; medium risk is a four-way split.

#43

Matthew Golden Medium

7 targets, 3 for 21 and a score, 23%, level with Kraft; Watson 3. 30% → 21% → 24% → 23%. The Packers' first read by a hair. Up two.

#44

Emeka Egbuka High

4 targets, 2 for 13 with Daniels; 22% → 15% → 25% → 15%. Two more weeks of the rookie. Up two only because of the fallers; high risk is the quarterback.

#45

DJ Moore Medium

Aggravated the shoulder and exited; 2 targets. Not expected to miss significant time, Week 5 at the Rams unclear. Up two by default; 42–48 when he plays.

#47

Patrick Mahomes Medium

30 for 225 and two scores in a 30-27 win; 1,037 yards and nine touchdowns through four. Bye week. The model's 95 is last year's touchdown rate; I'm at 48.

#48

Mike Evans High

8 targets, 5 for 76, 28% (14% → 23% → 28%). High risk is the hip he's been managing all month. Up one.

#51

Bhayshul Tuten Medium

17 for 73, 63% of the carries (47% → 54% → 50% → 63%), Rodriguez 6. The job keeps tilting his way, and he's on a 6.5-point favorite in London. Up three.

#53

Chuba Hubbard Medium

20 for 122 and two scores, 71% (55% → 83% → 71%). The model has him 24th. Bye week, which is the only reason he's 54 and not 40.

#54

Luther Burden III Medium

6 targets, 4 for 63 with Bagent; 19% → 23% → 32% → 19%. Loveland had 9. Up two; the Bears' slot share bounces week to week with the backup.

#58

TreVeyon Henderson Medium

14 for 42, no catches, 40% of the carries (57% → 31% → 40%); Stevenson 13. The split isn't tilting his way yet. Up three on the position; the model has him 127th.

#59

George Kittle High

6 targets, 4 for 70 and a score, 21%; four straight weeks between 19% and 27%. Up four. High risk is the history.

#60

Tucker Kraft High

7 targets, 6 for 42 and a score, 23% (10% → 16% → 23%), level with Golden for the team lead. Holding.

#61

Sam LaPorta High

13 targets, 8 for 84 and a score, 25% (18% → 13% → 25%) in a 52-attempt game. Up eight; Arizona next in a 54.5 total.

#62

Rashee Rice Medium

Hamstring, left Sunday's game; the bye should keep him from missing more. Thornton is out indefinitely, so the targets concentrate when Rice is back. Down eleven for the week lost; 53–64 when he plays.

#64

Jameson Williams Medium

8 targets, 6 for 102, 16%; 23% → 11% → 13% → 16%. The deep role in a 52-attempt offense. Medium risk is the shape of the week. Down two.

#65

Josh Downs Medium

4 targets, 3 for 16, 14%, in a 34-attempt game Treadwell and Dulin split; 14% → 30% → 31% → 14%. Up sixteen anyway: Allen (groin) is out and Pierce is in a cast, so the share comes back to him.

#68

Quinshon Judkins High

17 for 53 and a score plus 7 targets, 6 catches: 63% of the carries (52% → 60% → 63%) and 21% of the targets. The receiving work is new (17% → 7% → 21%). Up sixteen; the model has him 30th.

#70

Aaron Jones High

20 for 94 and 8 targets, 4 catches; 65% of the carries (82% → 74% → 65%) and 24% of the targets two weeks running. High risk is the age and Mason's return in October. The model has him 19th.

#74

Kyle Monangai High

30 for 146 and two scores, 56% of the carries (26% → 32% → 29% → 56%); the thumb imaging showed nothing and Johnson expects him to play. Up ten. High risk is the committee: Swift still had 15.

#82

Stefon Diggs Medium

9 targets, 5 for 35, 25%, with McLaurin out; 31% → 18% → 23% → 25%. Down two; medium risk is 32 years old and the rookie's 8 targets.

#83

Deebo Samuel Sr. High

6 targets, 5 for 26 and a score, plus 3 carries for 44; 21% of the targets after 0%. Down 17: the role is Shanahan's whim, and the week he gets 6 targets is the week Evans gets 8 and Kittle scores.

#90

Tony Pollard Medium

16 for 48 and a score, 62% (50% → 48% → 81% → 62%), 4 targets. Up 20 on the backs behind him; Houston next in a 38.5 total.

#91

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Medium

9 carries for 15 and 4 targets, 41% (50% → 38% → 59% → 41%) in a 30-13 loss. Down five; the volume is there and 1.7 a carry isn't.

#96

Chris Godwin Jr. Medium

7 targets, 6 for 31 with Daniels, 27% (15% → 9% → 11% → 27%). The rookie throws short and Godwin is the short throw. Down five; medium risk is the quarterback.

#102

J.K. Dobbins High

11 for 40, 50% (53% → 36% → 68% → 50%); Harvey 7 carries and 10 targets. High risk is the split and the age. Down four.

#104

Courtland Sutton Medium

6 targets, 1 for 4; 19% → 14% → 23% → 16%. Harvey caught 10. Down eight; medium risk is a four-way split with no first read.

#109

Brian Thomas Jr. Medium

2 targets, 2 for 17 and a score; 14% → 29% → 4% → 9%. Strange had 8, Meyers 4. Holding; medium risk until the share says otherwise.

#116

Makai Lemon Medium

6 targets, 3 for 27, 24%, with Smith, Goedert and Brown out; 3% → 16% → 24%. Down four only because Hurts threw for 93 yards; the share is rising and the room is empty.

#129

KC Concepcion Medium

8 targets, 5 for 64, 24% (23% → 20% → 30% → 24%); Watson threw 33 times. Down four on the Browns' pecking order; Boston passed him.

#130

MarShawn Lloyd High

7 carries for 13 and 5 catches for 36; 28% of the carries (62% → 33% → 44% → 28%), Kaleb Johnson 8, Brooks 4 and an ankle. High risk is a committee that keeps rotating. Down three.

#141

If Healthy

Held down or off the board while out. Where each would slot the week he's back: a band, not a rank.

Justin Jefferson WR · MIN

Out Sunday with the ankle; Hockenson took 13 targets and Addison 6 in his place. No practice report yet for Week 5. Held at 17 one more week; if he's out again he drops into the band.

would slot 15–20; ankle, missed Week 4

Saquon Barkley RB · PHI

would slot 20–26; hamstring, Shipley the only healthy back

Lamar Jackson QB · BAL

Ankle sprain; the report says more likely than not he sits Sunday night and could miss more. Huntley finished (9 attempts). 20 for 222 and two scores before it. Up two only because the quarterbacks around him are worse; 24–31 when he's back.

would slot 24–31; ankle sprain, likely out Sunday night

DeVonta Smith WR · PHI

Out Sunday with the hamstring, and Hurts threw for 93 yards without him, Goedert and Brown. Down five. The share is his when he's back; the offense is the question.

would slot 30–35; hamstring, missed Week 4

Breece Hall RB · NYJ

Out again with the quad; Braelon Allen took all 14 Jets carries. Second game missed, no return date given. Down three; 33–39 when he's back.

would slot 33–39; quad, a second game missed, no return date

A.J. Brown WR · NE

On IR since Sept. 12 with the high-ankle sprain; not eligible to practice until Week 6, back around Week 8. He moves to the taxi squad next week; 40 is where he'd be when he's back, not now.

would slot 38–44; IR, back around Week 8

Ladd McConkey WR · LAC

Played through the foot, then left with it: 2 targets, no catches (12% → 15% → 6% before that). Harbaugh said week to week, ESPN says maybe day to day. Up two by default; 40–46 when he's right.

would slot 40–46; foot, day to day or week to week

DJ Moore WR · BUF

Aggravated the shoulder and exited; 2 targets. Not expected to miss significant time, Week 5 at the Rams unclear. Up two by default; 42–48 when he plays.

would slot 42–48; shoulder, Week 5 unclear

Rashee Rice WR · KC

would slot 53–64; hamstring, the bye helps

Terry McLaurin WR · WAS

Out Sunday with the hamstring; Quinn says he pushed to play and is day to day. Daniels is aiming for a full practice this week. Down four; back to the 70s when both are on the field.

would slot 70–84; hamstring, day to day

Out for the Season

Off the board for good this year, with the reason. Not the taxi squad: nobody here is coming back to a rank.

Player	Pos	Tm	Why	Was
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	Torn ACL, out for the season	#32
Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	IR, meniscus; testing showed the knee worse than first thought, likely the season	#78
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	Season-ending neck surgery (not believed to be career-ending)	#122

Fell Off the Board

On the Week 4 board, not on this one. The number is where he was.

Player	Pos	Tm	Was
Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	#140
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	#142
Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	#143
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	#150

Biggest Movers

Risers

Denzel Boston▲ 35

Emanuel Wilson▲ 30

Brian Robinson▲ 25

Carnell Tate▲ 22

Juwan Johnson▲ 21

Fallers

Dalton Kincaid▼ 30

Omarion Hampton▼ 22

Deebo Samuel Sr.▼ 17

Justin Herbert▼ 17

Blake Corum▼ 16

Denzel Boston ▲ 35

He has cemented himself as WR1 and the Browns offense with a somehow resurgent Watson may have some juice. Jumps multiple tiers.

Emanuel Wilson ▲ 30

21 carries for 81 and a score, 3 catches for 39 and a score; 64% of the carries (52% → 50% → 64%), and Price is on IR until Week 8 at the earliest. The model's 8 is OTS at +100 on top of the share I just gave him. Up 30 to 119; I'll admit that's conservative for a month of the job.

The Metrics

OTSOpportunity trend

RCSRole clarity

SFSScheme fit

PGHIPassing health