PlayerQuarterback · MINUpdated October 14, 2026
Player · QB · MIN · last ranked Week 5
Kyler Murray
37 for 247 and no scores in a 15-10 win with Jefferson out. Down eleven; the model's 53 wants the attempts, I want a touchdown first.
Dual threat
Tier 13 · Dart Throws
Risk · Low
#125Board rank
#53Model rank
QB4Position
155ADP
18.6Proj. PPG
+2.0Over replacement
+30vs. market
17Games projected
Rank, Every Edition
| Date | Edition | Model | Board | Chg | The note that week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | Preseason | 61 | 91 | — | — |
| Sep 9 | Week 1 | 61 | 92 | ▼ 1 | — |
| Sep 16 | Week 2 | 60 | 128 | ▼ 36 | Concussion on the first drive Week 1, in the protocol. The rank is the protocol, not the player; the model doesn't know he's hurt. |
| Sep 23 | Week 3 | 54 | 117 | ▲ 11 | Cleared the protocol Monday and starts Sunday at Tampa Bay. Holding at 117 until I see a full game in the new offense; the model's 54 is a full season of starter shares, and August's 91st is where I'm working back toward. |
| Oct 1 | Week 4 | 56 | 114 | ▲ 3 | 29 attempts for 168 and a score in his first full game, a 23-16 win at Tampa. I'm moving him toward the model (56) a step at a time; one game of that doesn't get him there. |
| Oct 7 | Week 5 | 53 | 125 | ▼ 11 | 37 for 247 and no scores in a 15-10 win with Jefferson out. Down eleven; the model's 53 wants the attempts, I want a touchdown first. |
Every edition stays. Nothing here is edited after it publishes; the change column is computed from the prior file.
The Projected Line
Share × team total × games. The share is the judgment; the total is the ceiling.
507Pass att
3974Pass yds
24.4Pass TD
11.4INT
520Rush yds
5.2Rush TD
Signals
I disagree with the modelModel 53 · ADP 155 · gap +102
No metric speaks; the gap is the attempts (37 Sunday) against no touchdowns. Model 53, market 155, me 125.