Written down before kickoff
The Plays
A play of the day, a survivor pick each week, and a daily fantasy lineup when I'm playing one. Every one of them goes up before the game and gets graded the morning after, from the box score.
Season 2026Props 3–7Survivor 3–0DFS 1–1 · 1 open
The House Rules
I'm not a betting account. I rank players here, and sometimes watching a game with a number in mind makes it more fun. That's what this page is: the plays I actually make, written down before kickoff and graded the next morning, with the record kept whether it's good or bad.
One play at a time. I don't post parlays. The book's edge compounds with every leg, and a nine-leg card is a lottery ticket with a nicer font.
The number comes first. Every play carries the line I saw and where I saw it, so if your book is different, you know before you tap.
Everything gets graded. Hit, push or miss, from the box score, the morning after. Nothing gets deleted. The record on this page is the whole record.
Nobody pays for a pick. If a link on this page ever earns me something, it will say so right next to the link. No operator has a say in which players show up here, and the rankings never know this page exists.
Bet small or not at all. Legal age in your state, money you'd spend on a night out, and stop the moment it stops being fun. If it already has, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Season-long calls, the bold predictions and the flag plant, live on the Accuracy page. This is the day-to-day.
Play of the Day10 graded · 0 open
| Date | Player | The play | The line | Why | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 Falcons at Saints |
Chris Olave WR · NO |
Over 6.5 receptions | 6.5 at DraftKings, Monday Oct 5, 7:00pm ET (opened 7.5; confirm the price before kickoff) | 10, 8 and 9 catches on 13, 10 and 13 targets, a quarter to a third of the Saints' throws every week. Shough's attempts line moved from 32.5 to 37.5 today, Noah Fant is inactive, and the Saints are a 1.5-point home favorite in a 47.5 total. The line came down a full catch from where it opened. Same player as Week 3, one line higher. | 8 catches on 12 targets for 116 yards in a 45-24 loss to the Falcons. Shough threw 48 times; the seventh catch came in the third quarter with the Saints chasing. | hit |
| Oct 1 Steelers at Browns |
Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE |
Over 4.5 receptions | 4.5 at DraftKings, Thursday Oct 1, 6:30pm ET (opened 4.5; confirm the price before kickoff) | 6 targets and 5 catches in Week 2, then 9 and 7 with two scores in Week 3: 30% of Cleveland's throws last week, up from 20%. Watson throws short (30 attempts a game), the Browns are without their center and a guard against the Steelers' front, which means the quick game, and Jeudy had no targets at all last week. Browns +2.5 at home, total 38.5. | 3 catches on 5 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown in a 27-24 Browns win. Watson threw 33 times and spread it: Concepcion 8 targets, Boston 7, Judkins 7, Fannin 5. The fifth catch never came. | miss |
| Sep 27 Texans at Colts |
Dalton Schultz TE · HOU |
Over 5.5 receptions | 5.5 at DraftKings, Saturday Sept 26 (confirm the price Sunday morning) | Collins is out again. The last time that was true Schultz caught 12 of 14 targets for 140; Houston -1.5, so a neutral script, and nobody else in that receiver room has taken the targets. Volume, not yards. | 3 catches on 3 targets for 30 yards in a 19-17 loss at Indianapolis. Houston threw only 27 times, and the targets that went somewhere went to Hutchinson (6) and Moreau (4). Collins out didn't repeat itself. | miss |
| Sep 27 Raiders at Saints |
Chris Olave WR · NO |
Over 5.5 receptions | 5.5 at DraftKings, Saturday Sept 26 (opened 6.5; confirm the price Sunday morning) | 13 targets and 10 catches, then 10 and 8. The Saints have played fast (81 plays in Week 1, 61 in Week 2) and Shough is throwing 34 a game. Saints -3 at home, and the line came down a full catch from where it opened. | 9 catches on 13 targets for 107 yards in a 35-27 loss to the Raiders. Shough threw 42 times; the sixth catch came in the third quarter. | hit |
| Sep 20 Bengals at Texans |
David Montgomery RB · HOU |
Over 15.5 rushing attempts the post | 15.5 (-114) at DraftKings, Sept 19 evening | 20 of Houston's 32 carries in Week 1 and both goal-line scores, with Marks at 9. Houston a 2.5-point home favorite, total 46.5: the neutral script an attempts prop wants. The role is the bet, not the yards. | 6 carries for 10 yards in a 20-6 loss. Houston ran 18 times and threw 56, and the backfield split went the other way: Marks had 8 carries and 6 targets to Montgomery's 6 and 2. The role was the bet and the role didn't hold once they trailed. | miss |
| Sep 20 Packers at Jets |
Matthew Golden WR · GB |
Over 3.5 receptions the post | 3.5 (-152) at FanDuel, Sept 20 morning | He led the room with 12 targets last week and the book hadn't adjusted yet. The script could get questionable against the Jets, but the offense can keep up enough to keep passing. Posted as a second play Sunday, after Montgomery. | 4 catches on 6 targets for 58 yards in a 20-17 overtime win. Green Bay threw only 29 times and Watson drew 11 of them; the fourth catch cleared it by one. | hit |
| Sep 17 Lions at Bills |
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET |
Over 18.5 rushing attempts the post | 18.5 (-120) at DraftKings, Sept 17 morning (opened 18.5) | 29 of Detroit's 33 carries in Week 1 with Montgomery gone to Houston. A normal Lions game is 24 to 28 rushes, and 80% of that clears the number. After three yardage misses, this week's plays are volume props on roles the board and the box score agree on. | 16 carries for 52 yards, plus 6 catches for 61 and a touchdown, in a 41-31 loss. Detroit trailed from the first quarter and finished with 20 rushes to 38 throws; Buffalo ran 36 times. The role held (16 of 20), the script didn't. | miss |
| Sep 14 Broncos at Chiefs |
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN |
Over 56.5 receiving yards | 56.5 (-113) at DraftKings, Sept 14 morning; confirm on your book | He averaged 59 a game in Miami with a worse quarterback mix and a run-first script. Denver under Nix is one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league (612 attempts last year), and Kansas City's secondary lost McDuffie, Watson and Cook this offseason. The model has him at 65 a game on a 25% target share; I have him 28th on the board. | 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 targets in a 31-10 loss. Denver ran 15 times and threw 28; Nix went 131 yards, and the ball went to Bryant (6 targets), Engram and Sutton (5 each). No injury reported. | miss |
| Sep 10 49ers at Rams, Melbourne |
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF |
Over 38.5 receiving yards | 38.5 (-114 over) on the Sept 7 board; confirm on your book | 102 catches for 924 yards last year, 54 a game. With Kittle on a snap watch and two new receivers, Purdy's first read in Melbourne is the one it has been for three years. | 5 catches for 20 yards on 8 targets in a 27-7 49ers win. Purdy went 25 of 34 for 205 and three scores, and the targets went wide: Evans and Deebo 7 each. | miss |
| Sep 9 Patriots at Seahawks |
Romeo Doubs WR · NE |
Over 36.5 receiving yards | 36.5 at most major books; consensus 35.5, opened 33.5 | Seattle took Diggs away in the Super Bowl and the other Patriots receivers saw 7+ targets each. That bracket goes to A.J. Brown now. Doubs cleared this number in 10 of 17 games last year. | 0 catches on 3 targets. Maye threw three picks in a 13-10 loss; Hollins led the Patriots with 5 targets and 51 yards. | miss |
One player, one number, one side. Hit = cleared the number; Push = landed on it; Miss = didn't. Graded the next morning, never edited after.
Survivor3 alive weeks · 0 out
Week 3 · KC vs MIA
hit
The safest number on the board by a full tier: -10 at Miami, 81% to win (PoolGenius and RotoWire), 87% on Kalshi, against an 0-2 team starting Malik Willis. Also the most-picked team of the week. Know your pool: in a small one you take the safest team and worry about November later. If you want to go against the field, or bank Kansas City for the Week 11 home game against Arizona, Seattle at Washington (-7.5, about 76%, Mariota starting for Daniels) is the alternative. Lines Saturday afternoon.
Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10. Mahomes went 20 of 24 for 246 and two scores, Walker ran for one and caught one. Alive. The alternative I offered, Seattle, lost 33-31 at Washington.
Week 2 · SF vs MIA
hit
85% to win, the last week they project above 80% all season, and yes, a third of the field is on them (PoolGenius, Sept 15). This week the chalk has the numbers.
49ers 35, Dolphins 13. Purdy went 20 of 22 for 287 yards and two scores and ran for a third. Alive.
Week 1 · PHI vs WAS
hit
The contrarian pick on purpose. The Chargers and Jaguars are half of every pool this week; Philadelphia is a 5.5-point home favorite in a division game, about 68% to win, and roughly 3% of entries. Daniels is healthy and Kingsbury is gone, and I trust the Eagles' floor over that offense's first game in a new scheme.
Eagles 24, Commanders 22. Hurts went 14 of 25 for 203 yards and three touchdowns, and Washington's tying two-point try was stuffed with 1:01 left. Alive.
One team a week, never the same team twice. Hit = still alive; Miss = the season's over.
Daily Fantasy2 slates
Sep 27 · Sunday main slate DraftKings
miss
Dak Prescott $6,700 · CeeDee Lamb $7,800 · Kenneth Walker III $7,400 · Dalton Schultz $4,200 · Rashod Bateman $4,700
The five I built around, posted Saturday night. Dak and Lamb: the highest total on the board (53.5, Ravens-Cowboys in Rio) and the Week 2 lesson was to take the passing game in the top total. Walker: 83% of the carries plus 10 targets, on a 10-point favorite. Schultz: 12 of 14 with Collins out, and Collins is out. Bateman: 9 targets, three in the red zone, with Flowers out; Flowers is questionable, and if he's active the swap is Kelce ($4,500, 11 targets). If Walker's ownership tops 30%, the pivot is Chase Brown ($6,600, 20 of 23 carries) with the savings on Amon-Ra. Salaries DraftKings, Friday. The chalk: Walker, Kelce and Andrews carry the ownership (FantasyLabs, Friday); Stokastic's numbers weren't public.
71.1 points. Walker 18 for 70 and a score plus a receiving touchdown, 21.3 DK points. Lamb 7 of 8 for 112, 21.2 with the 100-yard bonus. Dak 25 of 40 for 276 and a score, 16.9. Schultz 3 for 30, 6.0. Bateman 2 for 37, 5.7, with Flowers active (5 for 84), so the Kelce swap applied: Kelce 2 catches, 59 yards and a score, 13.9. The five as posted: 71.1, 2.3x their $30,800; with Kelce for Bateman, 79.3. The pivots: Chase Brown 13 for 61, 8.9 (staying on Walker was right); Breece Hall 8.5; Jaylen Warren, the Build B flex, 17 for 127 and 3 catches for 49, 26.6. The slate-winner was JSN, 10 for 128 and two, 39.2. 2.3x of salary against a 3x bar: miss.
Sep 20 · Sunday main slate DraftKings
open
Bucky Irving $6,100 · David Montgomery $6,500 · Matthew Golden $4,700 · Jacory Croskey-Merritt $5,500 · Antonio Williams $4,400
The five I built around, posted Saturday morning. Irving: 7 targets and the goal line, an 8.5-point home favorite. Montgomery: 62% of Houston's carries and both scores. Golden: 12 targets with Jacobs out. Croskey-Merritt: 16 of 32 carries in the slate's highest total (50.5). Williams: my call, at the minimum. Salaries DraftKings, Sept 17. The chalk: Bijan Robinson 48% and McCaffrey 26% of the field (Stokastic preview, Sept 17).
Irving 17 for 89 and 4 catches for 1, 13.0 DK points, in a 23-19 loss to Cleveland. Golden 4 for 58, 9.8. Croskey-Merritt 12 for 43 and a catch, 5.8. Williams 3 for 24, 5.4. Montgomery 6 for 10 and 2 catches, 4.4, in a game Houston threw 56 times. The five combined for 38.4, three points more than Swift alone last week. The chalk split: Bijan (48% of the field) went 16 for 72 and 3 catches, 11.1, in a 34-3 loss; McCaffrey 10 for 23 with two scores and 4 catches for 43, 22.6.
Sep 13 · Sunday main slate DraftKings
hit
D'Andre Swift $6,100 · Chase Brown $7,100 · Omarion Hampton $6,800 · Garrett Wilson $5,800 · Trey McBride $6,800
The five I built around, posted Sunday morning with projected ownership: Swift 7%, Brown 7%, Hampton 4%, Wilson 5%, McBride 4%. Gibbs (57%) in the lineup too.
Swift 18 for 124 and three scores plus a catch, 35.4 DK points at 7% owned. McBride 9 catches for 95 and a touchdown on 13 targets, 24.5. Brown 56 yards and a score with 5 catches, 18.8. Wilson 6 for 79, 13.9. Hampton was the miss: 12 carries for 43, a touchdown and a lost fumble, 9.3, in a 26-14 upset. Gibbs 29 for 156 and two. Cashed.
The lineup as entered, the score as posted. Hit = cashed; Miss = didn't.
For entertainment. Not financial advice, not a guarantee, and past results don't predict the next one. I don't take bets and I don't handle anyone's money. You must be of legal age in your jurisdiction to play. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER.