The Ledger, Week 4: Buy, Sell, Hold, The Wire

Every week I write down what the games actually changed on my board, and what they didn't, in four columns. Buy means the price is below where I have him, or a situation worth getting into before the price catches up. Sell means the reverse. Hold is a loud or quiet box score that didn't change the role in my books. The Wire is who to add and who to let go, for players under 50% rostered on Yahoo. Every name gets the one number that made the call, and where he sits on my board now next to where he was last week. Week 4 was the week a few committees ended (Kyren, Judkins, Tuten) and a few new ones started (the Chargers, the Patriots), and the week the injury report took my Flag Plant off the field. That paragraph is in the Hold column, where it belongs.

Buy

Price below the board. The role is bigger than the market thinks.

Kyren Williams, RB LAR (21st, from 23rd). Two weeks ago the Signals note said if the split was still 12 and 12 after Week 4, he'd come down. It isn't. 16 carries to Corum's 5, two scores, and 13 targets on top, a quarter of everything Stafford threw. Two weeks in a row at 64% of the carries settles the committee question for me. The model has him 2nd now, which I'll get to on the Signals page (the trend metric is on for the first time and it loves him), and I'm at 21 because one 13-target game isn't his baseline yet. The buy isn't about the model. It's that his manager spent September watching a split and may still be pricing him like one.

Isaiah Likely, TE NYG (63rd, from 67th). 12 targets, 7 for 66; 28% → 31% → 24% → 41% of the Giants' throws. Winston throws to the tight end, and he throws a lot (29 times for 250 and three scores Sunday). Likely is 63rd on a board where the tight ends behind Bowers and McBride run out fast, and he's rostered like a streamer. Giants at Washington this week.

Carnell Tate, WR TEN (67th, from 89th). 12 targets, 9 for 145. His share has gone 21% → 29% → 26% → 43%, and the rookie is Ward's first read now, not his third. Houston comes to Nashville in a 38.5 total, so I'd temper the yardage expectation and not the volume. I moved him 22 spots and the model (31st) says I'm still slow. I'll admit it might be right.

Michael Wilson, WR ARI (50th, from 66th). 13 targets, 7 for 95. 19% → 27% → 34% → 37% across the month, Brissett throws it 35 times a game, and Harrison is at 11%. Detroit at Arizona is the highest total on the Sunday slate (54.5). This is the third straight week he's been in this column in one form or another, and the price still hasn't moved to match the share.

RJ Harvey, RB DEN (105th, from 103rd). 10 targets, 10 catches for 68, plus 7 carries, with Jonah Coleman on IR until Week 7 at the earliest. His target share has gone 23% → 26% the last two weeks. Dobbins still has the carries (11), so this isn't a lead-back buy; it's a half-PPR floor at a flex price, and the model has him 49th for exactly that reason.

Sell

Price above the board. Loud name, shrinking outlook.

Omarion Hampton, RB LAC (56th, from 34th). 9 carries, 28% of the backfield, after 72% and 54% the two weeks before. Keaton Mitchell had 10 carries and 6 targets, Vidal 5. He wasn't on the injury report, so this was a choice. One game, which is why it's a soft sell and not a hard one, but the Chargers' offense is 0-4 and 23 points was its best day of the year. I dropped him 22; the model's 79 and I finally agree on the direction.

Parker Washington, WR JAX (28th, from 28th). 43% → 19% → 13% of the targets; 3 of them Sunday while Strange had 8 and Lawrence threw 23 times. I left him at 28 and I'm telling you to sell him there, which sounds like a contradiction until you remember the rank is where I'd hold him on my own roster and the sell is about what your league thinks he's worth. If someone in your league sees "28th on the board" and a 1,000-yard pace from September, take the trade. The model has him 81st, and next week I expect to be closer to it than to 28.

Christian Watson, WR GB (27th, from 29th). 38% → 20% → 10% of the throws; 3 targets Sunday, with Golden and Kraft at 7 each. He moved up two on my board only because the receivers around him fell further, and I'll own that the rank is a week behind the share.

Dalton Kincaid, TE BUF (73rd, from 43rd). 21% → 29% → 12% → 7%; 2 targets Sunday. Shakir (8) and Keon Coleman (7) are the targets now. A tight end who was 43rd a week ago still carries a 43rd-ranked price with anyone who remembers Week 2, and that's who you sell him to. Down 30.

D'Andre Swift, RB CHI (33rd, from 27th). 15 carries to Monangai's 30, 28% of the backfield after 57%. Ben Johnson rode the hot hand for 146 yards, and the imaging on Monangai's thumb showed nothing. I don't think the split goes back to where it was.

Hold

The box score moved, the role didn't. Don't chase it, don't panic.

Jadarian Price, RB SEA (taxi squad, 70th if healthy; from 71st), my Flag Plant. He went on injured reserve Saturday with a chest injury, four games minimum, Week 8 at the earliest. That comes after 28 carries in three games, two lost fumbles and a benching. Emanuel Wilson had 21 of Seattle's 33 carries without him. So here's where the Flag Plant stands in October: on the taxi squad, graded at the end of the year like it always was, and the rank if healthy is lower than the August rank because the job isn't waiting for him anymore. I'm not going to dress that up. We know the talent, and the talent is going to spend a month watching a backfield he was supposed to own.

Ja'Marr Chase, WR CIN (4th, from 4th). 3 targets, then a concussion check in the second quarter and done for the day. Higgins finished with 16 targets and Burrow threw 54 times for 428. The Bengals update both of them Wednesday. Hold; if he clears, nothing changed, and if he doesn't, Higgins (36th) is the WR1 at Miami.

Justin Jefferson, WR MIN (17th, from 17th). Out with the ankle. Hockenson took 13 targets (13 catches, 119 yards) and Addison 6. No practice report yet. Hold, and Hockenson is the add if you need a tight end this week.

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL (29th, from 31st). Ankle sprain; the report is that he more likely than not sits Sunday night in Atlanta and may miss more. Huntley finished the game. The team says it isn't long-term. Hold, and start Henry with more confidence than usual, not less: 77% of the carries already and a backup quarterback behind him.

Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ (25th, from 25th). 4 targets, 3 for 27, in a game the Jets threw 15 times. Fifteen. That's 27% of nothing, and the share is fine. The game plan was the problem; Chicago ran it 54 times and the Jets barely had the ball. Hold.

Bijan Robinson, RB ATL (2nd, from 2nd). 19 for 145 and two scores, and then Brian Robinson took the second half of a 45-24 game (14 carries, three scores). 54% of the carries is what a blowout looks like, not a split. Nothing to do here except not panic about a backup's touchdowns.

Jeremiyah Love, RB ARI (24th, from 22nd). 14 carries (54%) to Allgeier's 8, an ankle LaFleur calls new and unrelated to the high-ankle issue, and Allgeier took the last four snaps. One game after 21 of 27. I moved him down two as a hedge, not a verdict, and the Friday report decides the rest.

The Wire

Under 50% rostered on Yahoo. Add: used like a starter. Drop: held out of habit.

Add Emanuel Wilson, RB SEA (119th, from 149th). 21 carries for 81 and a score, 3 catches for 39 and a score, 64% of the carries, and Price on IR for a month at least. The add of the week. He's 119th on my board and the model has him 8th; the model's number is its trend metric maxing out on top of the share I just gave him, so ignore the 8, but I'll admit 119 is conservative for a back who has the job for four games. Seattle hosts San Francisco Sunday.

Add Will Shipley, RB PHI, if Barkley sits. Barkley's hamstring went in the opening minutes (2 carries), and Bigsby, who took over, left late with an injury that needs core-muscle surgery and a stint on IR. Shipley had 6 carries and is the only healthy back on the active roster. If Sirianni's Wednesday update is bad, Shipley is a start in London, not a stash.

Add Keaton Mitchell, RB LAC (120th, from 137th). 10 carries, 6 targets, 5 catches, with Hampton at 9 carries. The Chargers went to a committee and Mitchell is the passing-down half of it.

Add T.J. Hockenson, TE MIN (145th, new). 13 targets, 13 catches, 119 yards with Jefferson out, 39% of Murray's throws. If Jefferson misses another week, Hockenson is a top-eight tight end for that week, and 145th is where he sits on a board that assumes Jefferson is back soon.

Add Brenton Strange, TE JAX (not on the board). 8 targets, 7 for 95, 35% of a 23-attempt game. One game, but the Jaguars host Philadelphia in London on Sunday morning and the Eagles' secondary just gave up 317 to Stafford.

Add Michael Mayer, TE LV (not on the board). 10 targets, 8 for 82, in a game Cousins threw 52 times. Bowers had 11. A streamer in a pass-heavy offense.

Add Isaac TeSlaa, WR DET (not on the board). 8 targets, 4 for 95, in a 52-attempt game. Deep leagues only; Jameson had 8, LaPorta 13, Amon-Ra 11, so the targets exist but he's fourth in line.

Add Kendre Miller, RB NO (on the cusp). Etienne is on IR until Week 9. Kamara had 7 carries and 7 targets Monday night, Miller 6 carries, and the team site says a larger role for Miller as long as Etienne is out. Deep leagues.

Drop: Tank Bigsby (IR, core-muscle surgery). Jadarian Price in redraft leagues without an IR spot; a dynasty hold, a redraft drop with four games minimum. Kalif Raymond (134th): 2 targets with Bagent after 7 with Keenum; the connection didn't travel. Tyquan Thornton: dislocated ankle, surgery this week, out indefinitely. Christian Watson if someone will take him in a trade first.

Also watching: Najee Harris (9 carries behind Skattebo's 18), Kaleb Johnson (8 carries led a Packers backfield nobody has figured out), Monangai's thumb (imaging clean, expected to play), Dowdle's toe (a return splits Warren's 89% again; McCarthy says "committee"), and Caleb Williams, who misses a third game this week while Bagent starts again at Green Bay.

---

The Week 5 rankings are up. Every move on the board is shown and explained, including the ones above.