The Ledger, Week 3: Buy, Sell, Hold, The Wire
What Week 3 changed on my board and what it didn't. Four columns, every week, with the number that made the call.
Every week I write down what the games actually changed on my board, and what they didn't, in four columns. Buy means the price is below where I have him, or a situation worth getting into before the price catches up. Sell means the reverse. Hold is a loud or quiet box score that didn't change the role in my books. The Wire is who to add and who to let go, for players under 50% rostered on Yahoo. Every name gets the one number that made the call, and where he sits on my board now next to where he was last week. Week 3 was the week the injury report rewrote half the depth charts (Achane, Mayfield, Caleb, Hall, Jefferson, Etienne, all in one weekend) and the week three backfield splits finally picked a side. Most of what's below is one or the other, and this one's a day late because the rankings were too. Sorry about that.
Buy
Price below the board. The role is bigger than the market thinks.
Jeremiyah Love, RB ARI (22nd, from 39th). Two weeks ago I put him in the Hold column and said you don't give up on him in September (I was vocal about it on X as well). Sunday was why. 21 of Arizona's 27 carries, Allgeier had 2, after it went 11-to-17 in the opener and 9-to-5 the week after. Add 5 catches and a touchdown and he had the whole job on Sunday, not a piece of it. The model still has him 44th because it's averaging three weeks and two of them were a split; I'm not waiting for the average to catch up. If his manager drafted him in the second round and spent two weeks watching Allgeier, this is the week to ask, before the Giants game Sunday makes the answer obvious. When was the last time you had the chance to buy a talent like this a few weeks into the season?
A post by @NFL
Jaylen Warren, RB PIT (65th, from 90th). 17 for 127 and 3 catches for 49 with Dowdle out, 74% of the carries, and he already had the passing downs when Dowdle was healthy. I called him "the 1A" on the Signals page last week and said starters are scarce. He's a 1 right now. Dowdle's toe is the fork, and Thursday night at Cleveland tells you fast; if Dowdle sits again, Warren is a top-20 back for the week and the price hasn't moved to match it.
A post by @steelers
Brock Bowers, TE LV (11th, from 22nd). 13 targets, 10 for 116 and a score in his first game back from the meniscus, 43% of the Raiders' targets. He missed two weeks, so in some leagues he's still priced like a guy who missed two weeks, and that's the window. His usage was crazy in his first game back; he played more like a wide receiver. It's probably impossible to buy him at this point, but he's right back atop the tiers.
Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ (25th, from 26th). I bought him last week at 26th and I'm buying him again at 25th. The rank barely moved; the case got a lot better. 13 targets, 10 for 107 and a score, with Mitchell out (finger) and Hall now week to week with a quad. The Jets' offense goes through the pass catchers for a while, and the pass catcher is him. He's a WR1; go capitalize on anyone in your league who still doesn't fully price him that way.
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Harold Fannin Jr., TE CLE (108th, from 112th). 9 targets, 7 for 51 and two scores, after 6 targets and 5 catches the week before. Thirty percent of Cleveland's targets last week, up from 20% the week before, is a tight end I'd start, and he plays Thursday night, so you get to see it before everyone else's waiver claims go through.
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Jordan Addison, WR MIN (83rd, from 93rd). 9 targets, 5 for 90 and a score with Murray back and Jefferson out after the first quarter. If Jefferson's ankle costs him Sunday, Addison is the WR1 against a Dolphins defense that just gave up 24 to a Chiefs offense that threw 24 times. Even if Jefferson plays, Murray is a different quarterback for the second receiver than Wentz was. This was exactly why we had Addison as a buy low weeks ago: he has upside.
Sell
Price above the board. Loud name, shrinking outlook.
The Bucs passing game for a month: Egbuka, Godwin, Otton (Egbuka 47th, from 43rd; Godwin 97th, from 82nd). I held Egbuka and Godwin last week because I believed in the offense, and I said so. The offense has a different quarterback now. Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand at the end of the Vikings game, Bowles says about three weeks, and the starter is Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie who went 0 for 3 with an interception in relief. Egbuka had 9 targets Sunday and he'll keep getting them, but the quality of the throws just changed for a month. Sell to anyone in your league who sees the names and not the quarterback. Bucky Irving is the one Buc I'm keeping (37th): 71% of the carries, and a team with a rookie quarterback runs the ball.
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Brian Thomas Jr., WR JAX (116th, from 87th). One target. 23 snaps, to Parker Washington's and Jakobi Meyers's 50. He was off the injury report, so that's a coaching decision, in a game the Jaguars won 35-6 and didn't need him. I don't know what's behind it and neither does anyone outside the building. What I do know is I can't rank a receiver whose coaches chose not to use him, so I didn't. Sell while the name still carries even a fraction of brand value.
Travis Kelce, TE KC (79th, from 80th), the soft version. 2 targets after 11, in a game Kansas City threw 24 times. He's still the chalk tight end in DFS and still has the name; the week-to-week is a coin flip now, and Rice (9 targets) is the first read. If someone offers a top-eight tight end's price, take it.
Dalton Schultz, TE HOU (122nd, from 122nd). Collins has a decent chance to play Sunday against Dallas, per Schefter, and Houston threw 27 times with him out anyway; Schultz caught 3. The two-week window is closing. He should still see targets in this offense, so this is not a hard sell. I wouldn't mind, though, if others see his 20-point outburst and overvalue him for it.
Hold
The box score moved, the role didn't. Don't chase it, don't panic.
Jadarian Price, RB SEA (71st, from 65th), my Flag Plant. 5 carries for 15, a second lost fumble in two games, a shoulder he played through, and Emanuel Wilson led the backfield again, 9 of 18 carries. Coaches bench fumbles, and Macdonald did, in a game Seattle lost by two. I cut his share on the board this week from 50% of the carries to 38%, which is why he's 71st and not 65th, and I'll admit the number could be lower. The player is the same one I watched in August; the Flag Plant was about the talent and the vacated volume, and both are still there. What's different is the coaches' trust, and he gets that back the only way a back ever does, with the ball in both hands for a full game. A clean game with twelve carries and he's back where he was. Another fumble and he's a lot lower than 71. The Flag Plant grades at the end of the year, so this is what the middle of it looks like, and I'd rather write it than skip the week.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR CAR (41st, from 40th). 5 targets, 2 for 17, a week after I told you to buy him. Legette was out, Tremayne got 6 targets, Waller 8, and Young threw 48 times to everybody. One game. The buy was about Bryce Young, and Young threw for 291; the share comes back.
Kyren Williams, RB LAR (23rd, from 24th). The Signals note last week said if the split was still 12 and 12 after Week 4 he'd come down. It isn't: 15 carries to Corum's 6, plus 7 targets. Hold, and the model is catching up (it has him 15th now).
The Bears pass catchers with Keenum (Burden 60th, from 67th; Loveland 68th, from 61st; Odunze 75th, from 74th). Caleb is three to four weeks with the Grade 2 hamstring. Monday night told you what Keenum's offense looks like: Burden 11 targets, 7 for 61 and a score; Raymond 7 for 90 and a score; Loveland 4 for 4; Odunze 6 targets and 3 catches; 27 points. Keenum throws to the slot and the tight end, which is good news for two of the three. Hold Burden and Loveland. Odunze is the one I'd worry about, and he's the one I moved the least because the sample is small.
Justin Jefferson, WR MIN (17th, from 15th). Ankle in the first quarter at Tampa, left the game, and the Vikings called Monday's news encouraging. Hold. If he's out Sunday, Addison starts for you and the Dolphins are the matchup.
The Wire
Under 50% rostered on Yahoo. Add: used like a starter. Drop: held out of habit.
Add Ollie Gordon II, RB MIA (90th, new to the board). Achane tore his ACL in the first quarter against Kansas City and is done for the year. Gordon had 17 carries and a touchdown after it, plus 3 catches. The Dolphins are the worst offense in the league (12 points a game, Willis at quarterback), so temper the expectations, but 17 carries is 17 carries and nobody else on that roster is taking them. If you missed him Tuesday night, the rest of this list is the consolation.
A post by @NFL
Add Kenyon Sadiq, TE NYJ (123rd, new). 8 targets, 7 for 105 and a score with Mason Taylor out (thumb). A rookie tight end at 22% of the targets, in an offense that threw 37 times and has lost its running back for a week or more, is a streamer at worst and a starter if it holds. Remember, this was our bold take: a difference-maker in the back half. He may be off to an earlier start than we anticipated.
Add Kalif Raymond, WR CHI (on the cusp). 5 targets then 7, 6 for 90 and a score with Keenum. Deep leagues only.
Add Jakobi Meyers, WR JAX (106th). 8 targets, 7 for 64 and a score, 30% of the targets, while Thomas sat. The Jaguars play at Cincinnati Sunday in the highest total on the main slate.
Add Keenan Allen, WR IND (129th, new). 9 targets, 6 for 63 and a score with Pierce on IR. Downs (11 targets, 84th) is the better player; Allen is the one on more waivers.
Add Braelon Allen, RB NYJ (119th, from 136th), if Hall is ruled out. Quad, week to week, and ESPN's reporting is that he likely won't be ready for Chicago. Allen has 10, 5 and 4 carries behind him this year, and for one week at Chicago he'd be the back. That's enough to roster him for the week.
Drop: Tyler Allgeier (141st), 2 carries Sunday, the job is Love's. De'Von Achane in redraft leagues without an IR spot; the ACL ends his year and the only reason to hold is a dynasty roster. Rico Dowdle (113th) unless the toe clears by Thursday, and even then he's the 1B.
Also watching: Konata Mumpfield (on the cusp) had 8 targets, 4 for 93 and a score with Nacua out, and Nacua is hopeful for Sunday, so that was a one-week role; same for Tyler Higbee's 11 targets. Emanuel Wilson (149th) is worth a bench spot in deeper leagues until Price holds onto the ball. And Travis Etienne went on my taxi squad this week: hamstring in the third quarter against the Raiders, "time lost" per Kellen Moore, which has meant weeks. Kamara leads that backfield for now, and I wouldn't chase it.
The Week 4 rankings are up. Every move on the board is shown and explained, including the ones above.