The Ledger, Week 1: Buy, Sell, Hold, The Wire
What Week 1 changed on my board and what it didn't. Four columns, every Monday, with the share number that made the call.
Every Monday I write down what the week actually changed on my board, and what it didn't, in four columns. Buy means the price is below where I have him, or a situation worth getting in on before the price goes up further. Sell means the reverse. Hold is a loud or quiet box score that didn't change the role in my books. The Wire is who to add and who to let go, for players under 50% rostered on Yahoo, because Yahoo reacts faster than the other platforms from what I've seen. Every name gets the one number that made the call, and where he sits on my board now next to where he was last week, so you can see what the week actually did. The Week 2 rankings show every move!
Buy
Price below the board. The role is bigger than the market thinks.
Bucky Irving, RB TB (29th, up from 46th). I'm going to own this one. I spent all of August worried about Gainwell and Tucker, and whether a smaller back can sustain the lead for a full year, and I ranked him like it. Then Week 1 looked exactly like last year: 7 targets, 7 catches, and every touch that mattered near the goal line, including the score. He only got 8 carries to Gainwell's 5, so the split is real, but 26% of Tampa's targets is the role that pays in half-PPR. The model loved him for exactly that reason. It had him 19th while I had him 46th, and to be frank, I was the one being modest. This is a back we drafted in the second round last year. My gut says this continues more often than it doesn't, so I moved toward the model, with data this time instead of reports. If his manager is still pricing him off the August noise, go get him.
A post by @NFL
Matthew Golden, WR GB (67th, up from 100th) and Tucker Kraft, TE GB (61st). Christian Watson had the day, 147 yards and two scores, and that's who everyone is going to chase this week. Let them. Golden had the usage: 12 targets, 30% of a 40-target afternoon, on a team whose run game managed 2.8 yards a carry with Jacobs out. Love threw it 42 times and I don't see that number falling much. Kraft got 6 targets and 65 yards, just got paid, and is the piece of this passing game that isn't going anywhere. I moved Golden 33 spots and I still don't think I'm all the way there. One game, so call it a quarter of the way.
Jordan Addison, WR MIN (90th, from 79th). Two targets, and the panic is coming, which is exactly why this is the week to make the offer. Kyler was gone on the first drive (a late hit while sliding, and he's in the protocol), and Wentz still got Jefferson 9 targets and two touchdowns. The offense wanted to throw. I moved Addison down a step because I don't know how many weeks Kyler misses, and I would still be buying. Kyler and Addison had the best rapport in camp of anyone on that roster, and when Kyler clears the protocol the second read comes back with him. He might be close to free in some places.
Sell
Price above the board. Loud name, shrinking outlook.
De'Von Achane and the Dolphins offense (Achane 23rd, from 20th; the model has him 15th). Let me be clear about something first. I think Achane is one of the five most talented backs in the league. This is not about him. This is about the Miami offense, and I have hated it since August: no receivers, a mobile quarterback who may not check down as much, and a team I don't expect to be in many games late. Sunday was about as friendly a script as Miami is going to get, a bad Raiders defense and a game within reach until the fourth quarter, and it produced 11 carries for 36 yards and 13 points. Malik Willis started and it looked like it. He's still uncuttable because of who he is. But if someone in your league still prices him like a top-12 back, take the value and don't look back.
Drake London and the Falcons pass catchers (London 43rd, from 29th). There will be better days than 4 targets for 29 yards. But look at who's throwing it to him between now and Penix's return: Cooper Rush, Tua, and a rookie in Jack Strand. The Falcons threw 22 passes on Sunday and Bijan caught 8 of them. I had London 29th against a draft position in the teens because I see a WR2 on volume without a ceiling, and Sunday was that player. I moved him down 14 more spots. If you have a manager who still calls him a WR1, this is the sell.
Quinshon Judkins and the Browns offense (Judkins 70th, from 66th; the model had him 42nd). Same theme, worse offense. Cleveland couldn't move it, the Jaguars threw four touchdowns on them, and Judkins got 12 carries for 33 yards with 2 targets, 55% of a 22-carry day. Last year the defense kept the scripts neutral, and that was the whole case. Garrett is a Ram now. If Verse and company can't do that anymore, Judkins is a volume back without the volume, and he isn't getting the passing work to make up for it. Risk High on my board, and I'm not in a rush to hold and find out.
Hold
The box score moved, the role didn't. Don't chase it, don't panic.
The Bears offense. 59 points is going to make people do strange things. RB1 in a Ben Johnson offense was my whole case for Swift in August, and 18 carries for 124 and three scores, 46% of the carries, is that case. Sign me up all over again. I moved him from 39th to 22nd and I would buy high on him all day. Monangai went 10 for 100 and I would buy him too. The pass catchers were the quiet part: Kalif Raymond led them with 9 targets, Burden had 5, Odunze 3 on a bad calf. If anyone in your league is selling a Bears receiver because of Sunday, buy low. This offense is going to feed everyone eventually.
A post by @NFLFrance
Tetairoa McMillan, WR CAR (50th, from 48th). I love Tet as a talent. I think he is that good. My worry was always the size of the passing pie with Bryce Young, and then Bryce threw for 361. Coker broke out, 9 targets for 138 and two scores, and the overreaction is coming. Tet still saw 8 targets for 75 in that same game. Coker was in a walking boot Monday, precautionary by his account, which is a reminder that this pie has room in it. Hold, and maybe try to buy low if someone doesn't view Tet as a WR2 right now.
Omarion Hampton, RB LAC (19th, from 13th). Everyone is down on the Chargers after losing to Arizona at home, fairly, and Hampton's touches thinned out after the fumble: 12 carries, 43 yards, a touchdown, no targets. Here's what I keep coming back to. In the brief audition he had as the lone lead back last year, he crushed it, then got hurt. That offense stalled without him Sunday, McConkey left with a chest injury, and Mike McDaniel spent three years finding ways to get Achane the ball when nothing else worked. He may talk about the hot hand, but we saw what he did with Achane. I moved Hampton six spots because the rank is about the field. He's still a Hold because the price is about the player. Both are true.
The Wire
Under 50% rostered on Yahoo. Add: used like a starter. Drop: held out of habit.
Add Antonio Williams, WR WAS (132nd). This is the one I'm calling. Everyone loves Jayden Daniels, and he's throwing to a 31-year-old McLaurin and a 32-year-old Diggs. The rookie from Clemson (71st pick, 207 catches and 21 touchdowns in college) caught all 4 of his targets for 64 yards and a score in his debut and looked like the most natural separator on the field. His college production was top tier, and rookie receivers with a quarterback like that don't stay at 4 targets. I would rather have him than a rookie in Miami, and I think he's the breakout of this class. Add him before the week he goes for 100.
A post by @NFL
Add Kaelon Black, RB SF (126th, from 143rd, about 27% rostered). 14 carries to McCaffrey's 10, 65 yards, 47% of the backfield in Melbourne. Two straight quiet weeks for CMC in the run game is a pattern, not a sample, and Black is the only handcuff in football that's already splitting the work. If you roster CMC, this isn't optional.
A post by @FantasyPros
Add Deebo Samuel, WR SF (79th, from 141st, about 49% rostered). He's right at the line, so this is for the leagues where he slipped through. 7 targets, 6 catches, a touchdown, a carry and two kick returns, and now De'Zhaun Stribling is out at least a month. Risk High on my board for the age and the mileage, and he should still be rostered everywhere by Wednesday.
Add Tyler Shough, QB NO (123rd, from 135th). 56 attempts, 410 yards, three touchdowns and a comeback in Detroit. Olave went 10 for 182 on 13 targets, Devaughn Vele caught 7 for 69 and a score, Juwan Johnson scored too, and Kamara didn't play. When Kamara and Tyson are back this could be wheels up. Add Shough in superflex and two-QB leagues now; add Vele anywhere while Tyson is out.
Above the line, and if he's on your wire, fix that: Jalen Coker, WR CAR (76th, from 117th). He's over 50% rostered, so he doesn't qualify for this column, and he's the best add on it anyway. 9 of Carolina's 34 targets for 138 yards and two scores, with Bryce Young throwing for 361. The boot on Monday was precautionary by his account, and I would still read the Wednesday report before I spent a top waiver claim on him. I moved him 41 spots, the third-biggest rise on my board this week. Real role, one game, ankle to watch.
A post by @NFL
Drop Rashid Shaheed, WR SEA (off the board, on the cusp list, about 46% rostered). Three targets, one catch for 4 yards, with Kupp still ahead of him in the pecking order and Darnold out for a few weeks. I would rather take a swing on any of the names above.
Also add, if you have the spot: Caleb Douglas, WR MIA (121st, from 142nd). I just told you to sell the Dolphins and I meant it, which is exactly why he matters: a team that trails all year throws all year, and 94 yards in a debut is the most by a receiver in a first game since Puka. Volatile, but real.
Also watching: Dontayvion Wicks (4 targets, 73 yards and a score in Philadelphia, 143rd on my board), Kenyon Sadiq (three catches and a rushing score in his debut, on my cusp list), and Emmett Johnson (the clear backup to Kenneth Walker on Monday night, 8 carries and 2 catches for 44 yards, on my cusp list because Walker's injury history is lengthy).
The Week 2 rankings are up. Every move on the board is shown and explained, including the ones above.