The Ledger, Week 5: Buy, Sell, Hold, The Wire

Every week I write down what the games changed on my board, and what they didn't, in four columns. Buy is a price below where I have him, or a situation worth getting into before the price catches up. Sell is the reverse. Hold is a box score, loud or quiet, that didn't change the role for me. The Wire is who to add and who to let go, for players under 50% rostered on Yahoo. Every name gets the one number that made the call and where he sits on my board now, next to where he was last week.

Buy

Price below the board. The role is bigger than the market thinks.

Braelon Allen, RB NYJ (102nd, from 123rd). 24 carries for 116 and a score, 75% of the Jets' carries, a week after he had all 14. Hall is out a third game with the quad and there's still no date on him. I had Allen on a 0.40 share coming into the week; the games say 0.55, so he moves, and the model has him 121st because it prices Hall's return in. The Jets are a 7-point dog at New England Sunday, so the passing downs come with the carries. If his manager sees a two-week rental, I'm happy to rent.

Woody Marks, RB HOU (79th, from 94th). 15 carries for 62 and 4 catches, 56% of the backfield, and then Montgomery left with a groin and is doubtful for London. Houston ran it 27 times Sunday. For me Marks has been the better back of the two for a month (the goal-line score in Week 4 was his as well). If Montgomery sits, you're getting a low-end RB2 at a handcuff price.

Mike Evans, WR SF (40th, from 51st). 10 targets, 7 for 113 and a score, 37% of the throws. The share has gone 14% → 23% → 28% → 37% over the month, and Deebo's hamstring is a multi-week absence, so the second-receiver targets land on Evans and Kittle for a while. Monday night against Washington. The hip is still the reason he isn't higher, and I'll admit the risk flag stays on.

Isaiah Likely, TE NYG (52nd, from 63rd), and Malik Nabers, WR NYG (23rd, from 31st). The Giants threw 54 times Sunday and Winston found these two 33 times between them: Nabers 20 targets (twenty), 11 for 121 and a score; Likely 13 targets, 11 for 94 and two scores, a week after 12. Likely was a buy in this column last week and he's a louder one now. Nabers is the one I've been slow on, and I know it. 31st last week for a receiver with a 38% share in an offense that can't run was a quarterback discount, and Winston keeps throwing. New Orleans comes to the Meadowlands Sunday.

Also in the column: Bhayshul Tuten (43rd; 22 carries, 81%, and Rodriguez had 2), Emeka Egbuka (59th; 9 targets, 36%, with Daniels throwing short), Kyle Pitts (110th; 6 targets, 5 for 42 and a score; 10% → 9% → 15% → 18%).

Sell

Price above the board. Loud name, shrinking outlook.

Chase Brown, RB CIN (33rd, from 22nd). 13 carries to Perine's 14, 42% of the backfield; 87% → 72% → 60% → 42% in four weeks, and the receiving work went with it (4 targets after 11). The Bengals are on bye, so there's a week and a half to find the manager who remembers Week 2.

Cam Skattebo, RB NYG (44th, from 42nd). 13 of 28 carries (46%) in a game the Giants threw 54 times; Najee 5, Tracy 3, and 3.2 a carry the week before. Winston's offense is Nabers and Likely now, and the back is a dump-off. The name still says lead back to a lot of people, which is the trade.

Alvin Kamara, RB NO (120th, from 124th). 3 carries to Kendre Miller's 10, and 2 targets. Two weeks ago it was 37% of the carries. He's behind Miller now; in redraft that's a drop more than a sell.

RJ Harvey, RB DEN (107th, from 105th). 3 carries and 1 target after 7 and 10 the week before; Dobbins went 18 for 68. Sean Payton called the plays, and it was a noticeable shift.

Hold

The box score moved, the role didn't. Don't chase it, don't panic.

Carnell Tate, WR TEN (64th, from 67th). 5 targets, 1 for 6, a week after I moved him up 22 spots on 43% of the throws; Spears had 9 targets out of the backfield and Ward threw for 170 in a 26-3 loss where nothing worked. One game. The month before it is the better sample, so he comes back a step on the board, not all the way.

Jeremiyah Love, RB ARI (25th, from 24th). 12 carries for 22 yards, 67% of the carries, on the ankle, in a 45-21 loss. The share is fine; the offense was down three scores by halftime. Hold, and I don't love the week: Arizona is a 12.5-point dog at the Rams.

Saquon Barkley, RB PHI (28th, from 26th). Out Sunday with the hamstring; Dameon Pierce had 11 carries and Shipley is doubtful with plantar fasciitis. Wednesday is his first practice. Hold. If he sits again, Pierce is the Eagles' back against Carolina.

The Wire

Under 50% rostered on Yahoo. Add: used like a starter. Drop: held out of habit.

Add Dameon Pierce, RB PHI (not on the board). 11 of 18 Eagles carries with Barkley out and Shipley hurt. A one-week start if Barkley misses Carolina, and Wednesday's practice report tells you.

Add Kendre Miller, RB NO (not on the board). 10 of 17 carries and the score; Kamara 3. New Orleans said he'd have a bigger role with Etienne on IR, and Sunday he did.

Add Germie Bernard, WR PIT (not on the board). 9 targets, 6 for 80, with Pittman on IR (plantar fasciitis, Week 10 at the earliest) and Roman Wilson out a couple of weeks. The Steelers' second receiver for a month by default.

Add Isaiah Bond, WR CLE (not on the board). 7 targets, 3 for 74, with Concepcion in the concussion protocol. Watson threw 33 times.

Add Tyjae Spears, RB TEN (not on the board). 9 targets, 9 catches. The passing-down back on a team that trails every week. A half-PPR floor, and not much more than that.

Add Corey Kiner, RB NE, if Henderson's ankle keeps him out. 6 carries for 52 after Henderson left; Stevenson had 13. Deep leagues.

Drop: Alvin Kamara. Michael Pittman (IR). Deebo Samuel in shallow leagues (hamstring, multi-week; the Niners' bye is Week 8).

Also watching: Perine (14 carries in Cincinnati; the bye tells you if it was a one-off), Trevor Etienne (eligible to come off IR in Carolina this week), A.J. Brown (eligible to be activated in New England this week), Caleb Williams ("pushing to play" at Atlanta), and the Chargers' three-way committee (Vidal 8 carries and the score, Hampton 14 for 33, Mitchell 6).

One model note. From this week the model blends each team's 2026 pace into its totals (New Orleans was projected at 528 pass attempts while on pace for 765, to take the biggest one), and the trend metric stopped stacking on top of the shares I type. That's why some model ranks moved a long way without the player doing anything. Every row still shows the model's number next to mine.

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The Week 6 rankings are up. Every move on the board is shown and explained, including the ones above.