RB · ATL
Model192
Rank114
ADP115
Gap-77
RCS32.5 · backs the model (weak)
Week 6Half-PPR · SignalsUpdated October 14, 2026
Week 6 · The Signals
What the Metrics Say
The short list: the dozen players where a metric is saying something and the market is somewhere else. The gap is draft position minus model rank (positive means the model is ahead of the market), and the blurb is the read. A gap with no metric behind it is just a rank difference, and the rankings table already shows those.
I disagree with the model
4 playersMy rank sits closer to the market, on purpose.
RB · NYJ
Model107
Rank45
ADP30
Gap-77
RCS60.5 · argues with the model's shares
Three games missed; the role score is strong because the role is his when he plays, and the model's 107 is the share I cut for the games he hasn't. Me 45 with a band. Both are right about different things.
RB · LAR
Model144
Rank90
ADP76
Gap-68
RCS16.8 · backs the model (weak)
5 carries and a score, 4 targets Monday night; RCS weak, and Kyren had 70% of the carries. Model 144, market 76, me 90.
RB · KC
Model189
Rank103
ADP136
Gap-53
RCS34.5 · backs the model (weak)
I'm in between
3 playersSplitting the difference between the model and the market.
QB · DET
Model55
Rank92
ADP130
Gap+75
PGHI66.6 · backs the model
The environment score was always strong; the team-total blend finally gives Detroit its 684-attempt pace. Model 55 (from 73), market 130, me 92.
QB · GB
Model83
Rank106
ADP140
Gap+57
PGHI68.6 · backs the model
31 for 367 and two scores against Chicago; the environment score stays strong. Model 83, market 140, me 106.
RB · PIT
Model17
Rank42
ADP59
Gap+42
RCS65.4 · backs the model
15 for 101 and 6 catches for 87 with Dowdle out a third game; RCS strong. Model 17, market 59, me 42. The gap is McCarthy's 'committee' when Dowdle is back, and the model now blends that in and still has him 17th.
I'm with the model
5 playersThe market has him wrong, and the model and I agree.
RB · MIA
Model47
Rank70
ADP319
Gap+272
RCS67.9 · backs the model
18 for 88 and a score, three straight weeks as the Dolphins' back; RCS strong. Model 47, market 319 (August), me 70. The offense is the cap and the metric doesn't grade offenses.
RB · SEA
Model63
Rank101
ADP222
Gap+159
RCS63.8 · backs the model
Last week the model had him 8th and I said the trend metric was counting the same games twice. Fixed, and with Price's return blended into the share he's 63rd, which is a number I can argue with. RCS still scores the role strong. Me 101, market 222.
QB · CAR
Model89
Rank97
ADP204
Gap+115
PGHI67 · backs the model
RB · MIN
Model54
Rank68
ADP98
Gap+44
RCS65.7 · backs the model
25 for 113, 69% of the carries; RCS strong. Model 54, down from 38 this week because Mason's return after the bye is in the share now. Market 98, me 68. The calendar is doing the work the metric can't.
QB · SF
Model68
Rank50
ADP112
Gap+44
PGHI53.8 · argues with the model's shares (weak)
Model = where the projection model has him · Rank = where he sits in the published rankings · ADP = average draft position · Gap = ADP − model · groups are whose side I'm on: my rank measured against the model's and the market's · the metric is the position's — role clarity for backs, passing-game health for quarterbacks, scheme fit for receivers — or the opportunity trend when that one is quiet · What the metrics measure