PlayerRunning back · MINUpdated October 14, 2026
Player · RB · MIN
Aaron Jones
25 for 113 and a score, 69% of the carries. Bye week, and Mason comes off IR after it. Up six; high risk is the age and the split that's coming, which is why the model moved him from 38th to 54th this week.
Lead backPass-down role
Tier 8 · ambiguity and Upside.. what wins out?
Risk · High
#68Board rank
#54Model rank
RB20Position
98ADP
11.8Proj. PPG
+1.7Over replacement
+30vs. market
17Games projected
Rank, Every Edition
| Date | Edition | Model | Board | Chg | The note that week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | Preseason | 132 | 127 | — | — |
| Sep 9 | Week 1 | 132 | 130 | ▼ 3 | — |
| Sep 16 | Week 2 | 143 | 125 | ▲ 5 | 12 carries for 40 and a score behind Mason's 15. The split is real and he's the smaller half of it; risk High is the age and the workload. |
| Sep 23 | Week 3 | 48 | 71 | ▲ 54 | 23 of 28 carries for 105 with Mason on IR (thumb, at least four games). The lead job is his for a month; Wentz's offense caps what it's worth. |
| Oct 1 | Week 4 | 37 | 72 | ▼ 1 | 17 carries for 58 and 6 targets for 34, 74% of the backfield with Mason on IR, and the first game with passing-down work (5 catches). High risk is the knee he played through, and the age. |
| Oct 7 | Week 5 | 19 | 74 | ▼ 2 | 20 for 94 and 8 targets, 4 catches; 65% of the carries (82% → 74% → 65%) and 24% of the targets two weeks running. High risk is the age and Mason's return in October. The model has him 19th. |
| Oct 14 | Week 6 | 54 | 68 | ▲ 6 | 25 for 113 and a score, 69% of the carries. Bye week, and Mason comes off IR after it. Up six; high risk is the age and the split that's coming, which is why the model moved him from 38th to 54th this week. |
Every edition stays. Nothing here is edited after it publishes; the change column is computed from the prior file.
The Projected Line
Share × team total × games. The share is the judgment; the total is the ceiling.
236Carries
899Rush yds
5.9Rush TD
63Targets
379Rec yds
2.4Rec TD
Signals
I'm with the modelModel 54 · ADP 98 · gap +44 · RCS 65.7 (strong)
25 for 113, 69% of the carries; RCS strong. Model 54, down from 38 this week because Mason's return after the bye is in the share now. Market 98, me 68. The calendar is doing the work the metric can't.