PlayerRunning back · LARUpdated October 14, 2026
Player · RB · LAR
Kyren Williams
16 for 49 and a score, 8 targets, 6 catches, 70% of the carries in a 54-attempt game. The model has him 3rd now that the Rams' pace is in, with the best role score at the position. I'm at 21. Arizona Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite.
Bell cowPass-down role
Tier 2 · The best of the best
Risk · Low
#21Board rank
#3Model rank
RB2Position
21ADP
21.1Proj. PPG
+11.1Over replacement
0vs. market
17Games projected
Rank, Every Edition
| Date | Edition | Model | Board | Chg | The note that week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | Preseason | 46 | 41 | — | — |
| Sep 9 | Week 1 | 46 | 40 | ▲ 1 | Kyren should be great, and it is a great offense. My projections and model, along with my gut, have Corum inching closer though. If there is a lapse, he may not give job back. But until then, Kyren is as solid as they come. |
| Sep 16 | Week 2 | 52 | 37 | ▲ 3 | Kyren should be great, and it is a great offense. My projections and model, along with my gut, have Corum inching closer though. If there is a lapse, he may not give job back. But until then, Kyren is as solid as they come. |
| Sep 23 | Week 3 | 65 | 24 | ▲ 13 | Twelve carries each for him and Corum, two weeks running, and the model has him 65th on that split. I'm buying the offense and the touchdown role (he scored again); the split is the risk. |
| Oct 1 | Week 4 | 15 | 23 | ▲ 1 | The split broke his way: 15 carries to Corum's 6, plus 7 targets, after two weeks of 12 and 12. I said he'd come down if it was still even after Week 4; it isn't, and the model (15) agrees now. |
| Oct 7 | Week 5 | 2 | 21 | ▲ 2 | 16 carries to Corum's 5 (64%, two weeks running), 13 targets, two scores. The split I said would decide it is decided. The model's 2 is OTS plus RCS 77 on top of the raised share; I'm at 21 because one 13-target game isn't his baseline yet. |
| Oct 14 | Week 6 | 3 | 21 | — | 16 for 49 and a score, 8 targets, 6 catches, 70% of the carries in a 54-attempt game. The model has him 3rd now that the Rams' pace is in, with the best role score at the position. I'm at 21. Arizona Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite. |
Every edition stays. Nothing here is edited after it publishes; the change column is computed from the prior file.
The Projected Line
Share × team total × games. The share is the judgment; the total is the ceiling.
325Carries
1536Rush yds
15.8Rush TD
92Targets
529Rec yds
4.1Rec TD
Signals
I disagree with the modelModel 3 · ADP 21 · gap +18 · RCS 78.8 (strong)
70% of the carries and 8 targets in a 54-attempt game, with the Rams' totals finally at their pace; RCS 79 is the best role score at the position. Model 3rd, market 21st, me 21st. The model is the aggressive one here and I don't hate it.