The Ledger, Week 2: Buy, Sell, Hold, The Wire
What Week 2 changed on my board and what it didn't. Four columns, every week, with the number that made the call.
Every week I write down what the games actually changed on my board, and what they didn't, in four columns. Buy means the price is below where I have him, or a situation worth getting into before the price catches up. Sell means the reverse. Hold is a loud or quiet box score that didn't change the role in my books. The Wire is who to add and who to let go, for players under 50% rostered on Yahoo, because Yahoo reacts faster than the other platforms from what I've seen. Every name gets the one number that made the call, and where he sits on my board now next to where he was last week. Week 2 was the week the game scripts took over, so more of this week's calls are about the offense around the player than the player himself. You'll see that thread run through everything below.
Buy
Price below the board. The role is bigger than the market thinks.
Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan, CAR (Tet 40th, from 50th). I said it last week: buy low on Tet. Then Bryce Young went to Atlanta and showed some juice. 23 of 36 for 287 and three scores in a 34-3 win, a week after 361 and three against the Bears. Two games is two games, but he has the pedigree, and even if the play settles somewhere below this level, I think it's a real step forward, and a real step forward from Bryce is all the Tet breakout needs. Tet went 5 for 101 on 10 targets, 31% of the passing game, after 8 targets the week before, with Coker still getting his 9. The pie got bigger instead of splitting. If his manager watched the Coker game last week and decided Tet is the second receiver in Carolina, that is the trade to make this week, before Sunday's box score gets around.
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Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ (26th, from 33rd). The Jets look much improved. They beat Tennessee by 13 and then took the Packers to overtime, and Geno threw it 41 times in that one. Wilson has been solid rather than loud, 6 for 79 and then 5 for 57 and a score on 7 targets each week, and I think the market is reading "solid" and stopping there. I moved him to 10th among receivers this week, and I think he finishes inside the top 12. The bet is the offense, not the target count: an improved Jets team that throws 40 times when it has to is a raise for the guy who has been their best player through everything. Find the manager who doesn't believe in the Jets yet. There's at least one in every league.
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Sell
Price above the board. Loud name, shrinking outlook.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense (Herbert 109th, from 100th; McConkey 47th, from 41st; Hampton 19th, unchanged). There will be better days ahead, but there are issues here. The two games they've lost, 26-14 to Arizona and 26-14 to the Raiders, both at home, both as favorites, are games they had no business losing. Herbert has 209 and 192 passing yards in them, one touchdown each, and two picks Sunday. Meanwhile Drew Lock went into Arizona and threw three touchdowns against the same defense that beat Herbert in Week 1. I still like McConkey the player; he was 3 for 35 coming back from the ribs, and the targets will return. But I am growing bearish on this offense, and now the schedule turns: at Buffalo, at Seattle, Denver, at Kansas City. That's the next month. My worry starts with the pass catchers and it reaches Hampton, who was the best thing on the field Sunday, 23 carries for 94 and a score, 72% of the carries. That is exactly why he's the sell: the box score is good, the name is good, and the game scripts in front of him could get scary. If you can get another RB1 for Hampton, I would consider it. If you can't, hold him and don't pay to find out.
Stefon Diggs, WR WAS (81st, from 86th). This is no indictment of him. He looks great still, two touchdowns Sunday, and he wouldn't be in this column if Jayden Daniels hadn't dislocated his elbow in Dallas. But Daniels is hurt again, there's no timetable, and the last time he did this he missed about a month. So here's what you're holding: a 32-year-old receiver with Marcus Mariota starting, a team that's 0-2 and could be a seller by the deadline, and a rookie in Antonio Williams who is only going to get more work. That's a lot of ways for the arrow to point down. Meanwhile the name and the numbers (9 targets, then 5 catches and two scores) will look like a WR2 to someone. See what that someone will give you. I'd even take a swing at a Bears pass catcher with the return; more on that below.
Hold
The box score moved, the role didn't. Don't chase it, don't panic.
The Bears pass catchers (Odunze 75th, from 66th; Burden 67th, from 46th; Loveland 61st, from 44th). It is not the start we wanted. The ones we cared about didn't produce in the 59-point game (Odunze 3 targets on a bad calf, Burden 5, Loveland none), and then Sunday in the rain the whole offense scored 3, Caleb got hurt scrambling in the fourth quarter, and none of them did much: Odunze 3 for 43, Burden 3 for 32 on 7 targets, Loveland 1 for 3. Some of these guys may not be what we thought, and that is okay. But their value could not be lower than it is right now, and that is not when you sell. The MRI came back a strain with no tear; Ben Johnson called Caleb week to week, one to three weeks, and hasn't ruled him out for Monday night against Philadelphia. Hold and wait for the better games, and there will be better games. If you don't want the volatility, sell after one of them, when the price has corrected. Right now is the wrong time.
Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, WR TB (Egbuka 43rd, from 34th; Godwin 82nd, from 74th). Things could not have gone worse for the Bucs over two games: a shootout loss in Cincinnati and then the upset at home to the Browns, with a two-hour lightning delay in the fourth quarter while they were driving, and the last heave of the night thrown to Egbuka and out of his reach. He caught a touchdown Sunday and didn't do much else, 3 for 16 on 5 targets, after 5 for 63 in Week 1. Godwin has 3 and 4 catches. The offense looks like a mess overall. I believe they sort it out to at least an average offense, probably better, because Baker and this coaching staff have earned that much patience from me. Hold both, and if someone in your league has decided Egbuka is a bust after two games, that's a buy.
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The rookie backs, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price (Love 39th, from 27th; Price 65th, from 63rd). These are guys you do not give up on. Love's split is real, Allgeier 17 carries to his 11 in Week 1, and then Sunday he out-carried Allgeier 9 to 5 in a game Arizona ran 17 times, plus 3 catches. The pie is small, not gone. Price got banged up: 13 carries for 52 and a fumble, then out with what they called a chest injury and Macdonald now says is a shoulder, "intact and nothing serious, it seems like," and Emanuel Wilson ran 21 times behind him. We do not care. It's a harder hold with Love because of where you drafted him (22nd overall in August), but these are the two rookies who can win you the league from the midpoint on. Price, I want the breakout before Charbonnet is back from the ACL, which is Week 5 at the earliest. Love, the work comes over time in an offense that already looks better than we expected. Hold both and read Wednesday's practice report on Price.
The Wire
Under 50% rostered on Yahoo. Add: used like a starter. Drop: held out of habit.
Add Adonai Mitchell, WR NYJ (116th, from 142nd). Everything I said about the Jets under Wilson applies here, plus one number: Mitchell led the Jets in targets Sunday with 12, ahead of Wilson's 7, and turned them into 6 catches for 63. He's talented, he's the one they send deep, and he drew the pass interference that set up a goal-to-go. He's on most waivers. He's the add of the week.
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Add Jonah Coleman, RB DEN (122nd, new to the board). What a start to a career. Popular late-round dart in August, zero touches in Week 1 and a drop in most leagues, then a savvy late-week scoop when Harvey (hamstring) was ruled out, then the last man standing when Dobbins pulled up with his own hamstring. 10 carries for 39 and the touchdown that gave Denver its fourth-quarter lead, plus 3 catches, and he got the late carries with the game on the line. Payton said Dobbins has "a little hamstring" and Harvey may be back soon. Fine. This is exactly the kind of thing we thought could happen in that backfield over the course of a season, and he looked good doing it. If he gets a real chance, you may not be able to put the lightning back in the bottle. Add him before you find out.
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Add Oronde Gadsden, TE LAC (144th, new to the board). Yes, I just told you to sell this offense, and I'm adding one of its pass catchers anyway. Here's the case. Njoku (fibula) and Kolar (forearm) both went on injured reserve Monday, four games minimum each, which leaves Gadsden as the only healthy tight end on the active roster. He was really good as a rookie last year, 49 catches for 664 yards on 69 targets in 15 games, and Sunday he caught the only touchdown Herbert threw. His routes went from 14% of the dropbacks in Week 1 to 48% in Week 2 before the injuries even cleared the room out. Look at the tight end landscape after the top six and tell me who else on your wire has a path to nearly every tight end route in a Herbert offense. And the schedule I called a gauntlet cuts the other way here: at Buffalo, at Seattle, at Kansas City, the Chargers are going to be throwing to keep up, and the pass catchers have to play for that to happen. He's a flyer, and the kind I'd rather take now than after the week it shows up in a box score.
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Drop De'Zhaun Stribling, WR SF (on my IR taxi squad, 80th if healthy). A lot of people have asked me whether to hold or drop him. He's on my new IR taxi squad at 80th if healthy, which is the player. The roster spot is a different question: I'm okay dropping him where the injuries are piling up and you need the bench spot or you're in a one-IR league. He had ankle surgery and is out close to 10 weeks. By the time he's back he'll have missed a lot of reps, he comes back to a crowded receiver room with Evans, Deebo and Robinson, and Kittle is healthy and catching touchdowns. I think it takes him time to get reacclimated. Know your league and whether you need the space; worst case, I'm fine with the drop.
Add Rashod Bateman, WR BAL (130th, new to the board; end-of-bench). A lesser add for me, because Zay Flowers (hamstring) was limited Friday and the team is hopeful he's back this week. But Bateman flashed with Flowers out, 9 targets, 7 catches, 88 yards and a score after a quiet Week 1, and Baltimore needs pass catchers. A fine bet for the end of a bench. I like the two names above him more.
Also watching, from Monday night: Isaiah Likely (60th, from 48th) led the Giants in targets for the second straight week, 10 of 32, with Jameis Winston throwing after Jaxson Dart hurt his knee on the first drive; the target share is real, the quarterback is the question until Wednesday's report. Nabers had 4 targets and a shoulder scare in the same game. And Kyren Williams and Blake Corum split the Rams' carries 12 and 12 for the second week running, which is the split I've had on the board since August.
The Week 3 rankings are up. Every move on the board is shown and explained, including the ones above.